Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infection probabilities with serological data and a Bayesian mixture model.

The individual results of SARS-CoV-2 serological tests measured after the first pandemic wave of 2020 cannot be directly interpreted as a probability of having been infected. Plus, these results are usually returned as a binary or ternary variable, relying on predefined cut-offs. We propose a Bayesian mixture model to estimate individual infection probabilities, based on 81,797 continuous anti-spike IgG tests from Euroimmun collected in France after the first wave. This approach used serological results as a continuous variable, and was therefore not based on diagnostic cut-offs. Cumulative incidence, which is necessary to compute infection probabilities, was estimated according to age and administrative region. In France, we found that a "negative" or a "positive" test, as classified by the manufacturer, could correspond to a probability of infection as high as 61.8% or as low as 67.7%, respectively. "Indeterminate" tests encompassed probabilities of infection ranging from 10.8 to 96.6%. Our model estimated tailored individual probabilities of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on age, region, and serological result. It can be applied in other contexts, if estimates of cumulative incidence are available.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and chronic kidney disease-associated mortality - results from the pooled cohort of the European multicentre ELAPSE-study.

Despite the known link between air pollution and cause-specific mortality, its relation to chronic kidney disease (CKD)-associated mortality is understudied. Therefore, we investigated the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and CKD-related mortality in a large multicentre population-based European cohort. Cohort data were linked to local mortality registry data. CKD-death was defined as ICD10 codes N18-N19 or corresponding ICD9 codes. Mean annual exposure at participant's home address was determined with fine spatial resolution exposure models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3), particulate matter ≤2.5µm (PM2.5) and several elemental constituents of PM2.5. Cox regression models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, calendar year of recruitment, smoking status, marital status, employment status and neighbourhood mean income. Over a mean follow-up time of 20.4 years, 313 of 289 564 persons died from CKD. Associations were positive for PM2.5 (hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.31 (1.03-1.66) per 5µg/m3, BC (1.26 (1.03-1.53) per 0.5×10- 5/m), NO2 (1.13 (0.93-1.38) per 10µg/m3) and inverse for O3 (0.71 (0.54-0.93) per 10µg/m3). Results were robust to further covariate adjustment. Exclusion of the largest sub-cohort contributing 226 cases, led to null associations. Among the elemental constituents, Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S and Zn, representing different sources including traffic, biomass and oil burning and secondary pollutants, were associated with CKD-related mortality. In conclusion, our results suggest an association between air pollution from different sources and CKD-related mortality.

Educational level and characteristics of invasive breast cancer: findings from a French prospective cohort.

PURPOSE: Breast cancer (BC) characteristics are known to influence patients survival. Social differences have been reported by previous studies for those characteristics but questions persist because of inconsistent conclusions. We aimed to investigate the impact of education on BC stage, grade, and hormone receptor (HR) status, while adjusting for potential confounders including a broad set of health behaviors, anthropometric measures, and reproductive factors. METHODS: In the French E3N cohort, 5236 women developed a primary invasive BC for which there was available information on stage, grade, and HR status. No multivariate analyses was performed for BC stage based on the lack of association in bivariate analyses. Odds ratios and confidence intervals were estimated using multinomial logistic regression models for BC grade or binomial logistic regression models for HR status of BC. RESULTS: Women with a lower education were diagnosed with higher grade BC compared to women with a higher education (1.32 [1.12; 1.57]). This association was slightly attenuated after adjustment for covariates independently and more strongly affected in the fully adjusted model (1.20 [0.99; 1.45]). A significant association was observed between lower education and HR- status of BC (1.20 [1.02; 1.42]) attenuated after adjustment for age at first childbirth (1.12 [0.95; 1.33]). CONCLUSION: In this cohort, education was associated with BC grade and HR status but not stage at diagnosis. The link between education and BC grade was not entirely explained by the different adjustments. A specific mechanism could be at play and deserves further investigations.

Macronutrient composition of plant-based diets and breast cancer risk: the E3N prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: Recent evidence suggests that plant-based diets may reduce the risk of breast cancer (BC). However, the macronutrient composition of plant-based diets and its potential impact on BC risk has not been well explored. This analysis investigated the association of macronutrient composition with BC risk across a spectrum of plant-based diet indexes using a multidimensional approach. DESIGN: This study followed 64,655 participants from the Etude Epidémiologique auprès de femmes de la Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale (E3N) cohort from 1993 to 2014. Diets were evaluated using validated 208-item diet history questionnaires at baseline (1993) and follow-up (2005), to calculate adherence to the overall plant-based diet (PDI), healthful plant-based diet (hPDI), and unhealthful plant-based diet (uPDI). The association of macronutrient composition with BC risk was assessed via generalized additive time-dependent Cox models across different levels of these indexes. Response surfaces were generated to visualize compositional associations at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile of each index (low, moderate, and high). RESULTS: A total of 3,932 incident BC cases were identified during the 21-year follow-up. There was a significant association between macronutrient composition and BC risk for hPDI, uPDI, and PDI (all P < 0.001). Akaike information criterion favored the hPDI model for characterizing the association between macronutrients and BC. BC risk was highest for individuals with a lower hPDI score who also consumed a diet containing lower protein (10%), lower carbohydrate (35%), and higher fat (55%). The lowest risk of BC was observed in those with higher hPDI scores with the lowest intake of protein (10%). At higher PDI and uPDI, diets containing higher protein (30%) and fat (45%) had the highest BC risk. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate a complex relationship between macronutrient composition, plant-based diet quality, and BC risk. Further research is needed to examine specific foods that may be driving these associations. REGISTRY: The protocol is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03285230.

Inflammation and Gut Barrier Function-Related Genes and Colorectal Cancer Risk in Western European Populations.

Gut barrier dysfunction and related inflammation are known to be associated with the development and progression of colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated associations of 292 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 27 genes related to endotoxins/lipopolysaccharide (LPS) sensing and tolerance, mucin synthesis, inflammation, and Crohn's disease with colon and rectal cancer risks. Incident CRC cases (N=1,374; colon=871, rectum=503) were matched 1:1 to controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Previously measured serum concentrations of gut barrier function and inflammation biomarkers (flagellin/LPS-specific immunoglobulins and C-reactive protein [CRP]) were available for a sub-set of participants (Ncases=1,001; Ncontrols=667). Forty-two unique SNPs from 19 different genes were associated with serum biomarkers at Punadjusted≤0.05 among controls. Among SNPs associated with a gut permeability score, 24 SNPs were in genes related to LPS sensing and mucin synthesis. Nine out of 12 SNPs associated with CRP were in genes related to inflammation or Crohn's disease. TLR4 was associated with colon cancer at the SNP level (nine SNPs, all Punadjusted≤0.04) and at the gene level (Punadjusted≤0.01). TLR4 rs10759934 was associated with rectal cancer but not colon cancer. Similarly, IL10 was associated with rectal cancer risk at a SNP and gene level (both Punadjusted ≤ 0.01), but not colon cancer. Genes and SNPs were selected a priori therefore we present unadjusted P-values. However, no association was statistically significant after multiple testing correction. This large and comprehensive study has identified gut barrier function and inflammation-related genes possibly contributing to CRC risk in European populations and is consistent with potential etiological links between host genetic background, gut barrier permeability, microbial endotoxemia and CRC development.

Psychological burden associated with incident persistent symptoms and their evolution during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying factors that predict the course of persistent symptoms that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic is a public health issue. Modifiable factors could be targeted in therapeutic interventions. OBJECTIVE: This prospective study based on the population-based CONSTANCES cohort examined whether the psychological burden associated with incident persistent symptoms (ie, that first occurred from March 2020) would predict having ≥1 persistent symptom 6-10 months later. METHODS: A total of 8424 participants (mean age=54.6 years (SD=12.6), 57.2% women) having ≥1 incident persistent symptom at baseline (ie, between December 2020 and February 2021) were included. The psychological burden associated with these persistent symptoms was assessed with the Somatic Symptom Disorder-B Criteria Scale (SSD-12). The outcome was having ≥1 persistent symptom at follow-up. Adjusted binary logistic regression models examined the association between the SSD-12 score and the outcome. FINDINGS: At follow-up, 1124 participants (13.3%) still had ≥1 persistent symptom. The SSD-12 score at baseline was associated with persistent symptoms at follow-up in both participants with (OR (95% CI) for one IQR increase: 1.42 (1.09 to 1.84)) and without SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to baseline (1.39 (1.25 to 1.55)). Female gender, older age, poorer self-rated health and infection prior to baseline were also associated with persistent symptoms at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The psychological burden associated with persistent symptoms at baseline predicted the presence of ≥1 persistent symptom at follow-up regardless of infection prior to baseline. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Intervention studies should test whether reducing the psychological burden associated with persistent symptoms could improve the course of these symptoms.

Association between pre-diagnostic circulating lipid metabolites and colorectal cancer risk: a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

BACKGROUND: Altered lipid metabolism is a hallmark of cancer development. However, the role of specific lipid metabolites in colorectal cancer development is uncertain. METHODS: In a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we examined associations between pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of 97 lipid metabolites (acylcarnitines, glycerophospholipids and sphingolipids) and colorectal cancer risk. Circulating lipids were measured using targeted mass spectrometry in 1591 incident colorectal cancer cases (55% women) and 1591 matched controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between concentrations of individual lipid metabolites and metabolite patterns with colorectal cancer risk. FINDINGS: Of the 97 assayed lipids, 24 were inversely associated (nominally p < 0.05) with colorectal cancer risk. Hydroxysphingomyelin (SM (OH)) C22:2 (ORper doubling 0.60, 95% CI 0.47-0.77) and acylakyl-phosphatidylcholine (PC ae) C34:3 (ORper doubling 0.71, 95% CI 0.59-0.87) remained associated after multiple comparisons correction. These associations were unaltered after excluding the first 5 years of follow-up after blood collection and were consistent according to sex, age at diagnosis, BMI, and colorectal subsite. Two lipid patterns, one including 26 phosphatidylcholines and all sphingolipids, and another 30 phosphatidylcholines, were weakly inversely associated with colorectal cancer. INTERPRETATION: Elevated pre-diagnostic circulating levels of SM (OH) C22:2 and PC ae C34:3 and lipid patterns including phosphatidylcholines and sphingolipids were associated with lower colorectal cancer risk. This study may provide insight into potential links between specific lipids and colorectal cancer development. Additional prospective studies are needed to validate the observed associations. FUNDING: World Cancer Research Fund (reference: 2013/1002); European Commission (FP7: BBMRI-LPC; reference: 313010).

Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of gastric and the upper aerodigestive tract cancers in a pooled European cohort: The ELAPSE project.

Air pollution has been shown to significantly impact human health including cancer. Gastric and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancers are common and increased risk has been associated with smoking and occupational exposures. However, the association with air pollution remains unclear. We pooled European subcohorts (N = 287,576 participants for gastric and N = 297,406 for UADT analyses) and investigated the association between residential exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone in the warm season (O3w) with gastric and UADT cancer. We applied Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders at the individual and area-level. During 5,305,133 and 5,434,843 person-years, 872 gastric and 1139 UADT incident cancer cases were observed, respectively. For gastric cancer, we found no association with PM2.5, NO2 and BC while for UADT the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.00-1.33) per 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, 1.19 (1.08-1.30) per 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2, 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 0.5 × 10-5 m-1 increase in BC and 0.81 (0.72-0.92) per 10 µg/m3 increase in O3w. We found no association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and incidence of gastric cancer, while for long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2 and BC increased incidence of UADT cancer was observed.

Pre-diagnostic circulating resistin concentrations and mortality among individuals with colorectal cancer: Results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

Resistin is a protein involved in inflammation and angiogenesis processes and may play a role in the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it remains unclear whether resistin is associated with increased mortality after CRC diagnosis. We examined pre-diagnostic serum resistin concentrations in relation to CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among 1343 incident CRC cases from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. For CRC-specific mortality as the primary outcome, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated from competing risk analyses based on cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models and further in sensitivity analyses using Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards models. For all-cause mortality as the secondary outcome, Cox proportional hazards models were used. Subgroup analyses were performed by sex, tumor subsite, tumor stage, body mass index and time to CRC diagnosis. Resistin was measured on a median of 4.8 years before CRC diagnosis. During a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 474 deaths from CRC and 147 deaths from other causes were observed. Resistin concentrations were not associated with CRC-specific mortality (HRQ4vsQ1 = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.73-1.23; Ptrend = .97; and HRper doubling of resistin concentration = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.84-1.19; P = .98) or all-cause mortality. Results from competing risk (sensitivity) analysis were similar. No associations were found in any subgroup analyses. These findings suggest no association between pre-diagnostic circulating resistin concentrations and CRC-specific or all-cause mortality among persons with CRC, and the potential insignificance of resistin in CRC progression.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and risk of leukemia and lymphoma in a pooled European cohort.

Leukemia and lymphoma are the two most common forms of hematologic malignancy, and their etiology is largely unknown. Pathophysiological mechanisms suggest a possible association with air pollution, but little empirical evidence is available. We aimed to investigate the association between long-term residential exposure to outdoor air pollution and risk of leukemia and lymphoma. We pooled data from four cohorts from three European countries as part of the "Effects of Low-level Air Pollution: a Study in Europe" (ELAPSE) collaboration. We used Europe-wide land use regression models to assess annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) at residences. We also estimated concentrations of PM2.5 elemental components: copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn); sulfur (S); nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si) and potassium (K). We applied Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the associations. Among the study population of 247,436 individuals, 760 leukemia and 1122 lymphoma cases were diagnosed during 4,656,140 person-years of follow-up. The results showed a leukemia hazard ratio (HR) of 1.13 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.01-1.26) per 10 µg/m3 NO2, which was robust in two-pollutant models and consistent across the four cohorts and according to smoking status. Sex-specific analyses suggested that this association was confined to the male population. Further, the results showed increased lymphoma HRs for PM2.5 (HR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.02-1.34) and potassium content of PM2.5, which were consistent in two-pollutant models and according to sex. Our results suggest that air pollution at the residence may be associated with adult leukemia and lymphoma.

Long-term exposure to several constituents and sources of PM2.5 is associated with incidence of upper aerodigestive tract cancers but not gastric cancer: Results from the large pooled European cohort of the ELAPSE project.

It is unclear whether cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) and gastric cancer are related to air pollution, due to few studies with inconsistent results. The effects of particulate matter (PM) may vary across locations due to different source contributions and related PM compositions, and it is not clear which PM constituents/sources are most relevant from a consideration of overall mass concentration alone. We therefore investigated the association of UADT and gastric cancers with PM2.5 elemental constituents and sources components indicative of different sources within a large multicentre population based epidemiological study. Cohorts with at least 10 cases per cohort led to ten and eight cohorts from five countries contributing to UADT- and gastric cancer analysis, respectively. Outcome ascertainment was based on cancer registry data or data of comparable quality. We assigned home address exposure to eight elemental constituents (Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S, Si, V and Zn) estimated from Europe-wide exposure models, and five source components identified by absolute principal component analysis (APCA). Cox regression models were run with age as time scale, stratified for sex and cohort and adjusted for relevant individual and neighbourhood level confounders. We observed 1139 UADT and 872 gastric cancer cases during a mean follow-up of 18.3 and 18.5 years, respectively. UADT cancer incidence was associated with all constituents except K in single element analyses. After adjustment for NO2, only Ni and V remained associated with UADT. Residual oil combustion and traffic source components were associated with UADT cancer persisting in the multiple source model. No associations were found for any of the elements or source components and gastric cancer incidence. Our results indicate an association of several PM constituents indicative of different sources with UADT but not gastric cancer incidence with the most robust evidence for traffic and residual oil combustion.

Childhood and adulthood passive and active smoking, and the ABO group as risk factors for pancreatic cancer in women.

OBJECTIVES: Active smoking and the A blood group are associated with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PC) risk. However, potential interactions between those risk factors and the role of passive smoking have been little investigated. We aimed to explore specific and joint associations of passive and active smoking, and effect modification by the ABO blood group in French women. METHODS: The study included 96,594 women from the E3N prospective cohort, mean age: 49 years (SD 6.7). Information on active and passive smoking was reported at inclusion and throughout follow-up. Cases were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases 10. Associations with passive and active smoking and effect modification by the ABO blood group were investigated with multivariable Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: During a 24-year median follow-up, 346 incident PC cases were identified. Current smoking compared with never and former smoking (HR 1.51 [95% CI 1.08-2.10]), and passive smoking in childhood compared with no childhood exposure (HR 1.47 [95% CI 1.08-2.00]) were associated with increased PC risk, but not passive exposure in adulthood (HR 1.16 [95% CI 0.91-1.47]). Exposure to both passive smoking in childhood and current smoking was associated with a stronger risk (HR 2.80 [95% CI 1.42-5.52]) than exposure to both current smoking and passive smoking only in adulthood (HR 1.68 [95% CI 1.10-2.57]) compared with neither passive nor active smoking. Associations between active smoking and PC risk were strongest in the O or B groups, while associations with passive smoking were strongest in the A or AB blood groups, but the interaction terms were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Both current smoking and passive smoking in childhood were associated with PC risk, with a maximal risk of current smokers exposed to passive smoking during childhood. Possible interactions between blood groups and active or passive smoking must be investigated in a larger series.

Association of SARS-CoV-2 infection with physical activity domains and types.

Lockdown imposed in the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak represented a specific setting where activity was restricted but still possible. The aim was to investigate the cross-sectional associations between physical activity (PA) and SARS-CoV-2 infection in a French population-based cohort. Participants completed a PA questionnaire. PA was classified into: (i) total PA; (ii) aerobic PA by intensity; (iii) strengthening PA; (iv) PA by domain and type; and (vii) by location. Sedentary time was also recorded. Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was assessed. Multivariable logistic regression models controlling for sociodemographic, lifestyle, anthropometric data, health status, and adherence to recommended protective anti-SARS-CoV-2 behaviours were computed. From 22,165 participants included, 21,074 (95.1%) and 1091 (4.9%) had a negative and positive ELISA-S test result, respectively. Total PA, vigorous PA, leisure-time PA, household PA, outdoor PA and indoor PA were all associated with lower probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Observations made in such a setting shed light on PA possibilities in a context of restricted mobility, where the health benefits of PA should not be overlooked. Along with already well-established benefits of PA for non-communicable disease prevention, these findings provide additional evidence for policies promoting all types of PA as a lever for population health.

A prospective study of the association between living in a rural environment during childhood and risk of psoriasis.

Psoriasis is one of the most common immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs). Living in a rural environment during childhood is associated with a decreased risk of certain IMIDs, like asthma, in adulthood. However, its role in other IMIDs, such as psoriasis is still unclear. To evaluate the relationships between different factors related to the environment during childhood and the risk of psoriasis in adulthood we conducted a study in E3N, a French prospective cohort composed of 98 995 women. During the 1990-2018 follow-up of 72 154 study participants, we identified 1 967 incident cases of psoriasis from self-reports in self-administered structured questionnaires. During the 2004-2018 follow-up of 67 917 study participants, 188 moderate-to-severe cases of psoriasis were identified through self-reports and from data from a drug reimbursement database. We fitted Cox proportional hazards regression models with age as the time scale from which we estimated hazard ratios adjusted for putative confounders (aHRs). We found inverse associations with risk of psoriasis for rural birthplace [aHR: 0.89 (95%CI: 0.79-0.96)] and for having farming parents [aHR: 0.84 (95%CI: 0.72-0.97)]. For moderate-to-severe psoriasis we found a nominally similar inverse association with rural birthplace but not with having farming parents. Our results suggest that an exposure to a rural environment during childhood may be associated with a reduced risk of psoriasis. These findings may help to improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of psoriasis.

Investigation of common genetic risk factors between thyroid traits and breast cancer.

Breast cancer (BC) risk is suspected to be linked to thyroid disorders, however observational studies exploring the association between BC and thyroid disorders gave conflicting results. We proposed an alternative approach by investigating the shared genetic risk factors between BC and several thyroid traits. We report a positive genetic correlation between BC and thyroxine (FT4) levels (corr = 0.13, p-value = 2.0 × 10-4) and a negative genetic correlation between BC and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels (corr = -0.09, p-value = 0.03). These associations are more striking when restricting the analysis to estrogen receptor-positive BC. Moreover, the polygenic risk scores (PRS) for FT4 and hyperthyroidism are positively associated to BC risk (OR = 1.07, 95%CI: 1.00-1.13, p-value = 2.8 × 10-2 and OR = 1.04, 95%CI: 1.00-1.08, p-value = 3.8 × 10-2, respectively), while the PRS for TSH is inversely associated to BC risk (OR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.89-0.97, p-value = 2.0 × 10-3). Using the PLACO method, we detected 49 loci associated to both BC and thyroid traits (p-value < 5 × 10-8), in the vicinity of 130 genes. An additional colocalization and gene-set enrichment analyses showed a convincing causal role for a known pleiotropic locus at 2q35 and revealed an additional one at 8q22.1 associated to both BC and thyroid cancer. We also found two new pleiotropic loci at 14q32.33 and 17q21.31 that were associated to both TSH levels and BC risk. Enrichment analyses and evidence of regulatory signals also highlighted brain tissues and immune system as candidates for obtaining associations between BC and TSH levels. Overall, our study sheds light on the complex interplay between BC and thyroid traits and provides evidence of shared genetic risk between those conditions.

Depression and anxiety before and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and incident persistent symptoms: a prospective population-based cohort study.

Many patients affected by COVID-19 suffer from debilitating persistent symptoms whose risk factors remained poorly understood. This prospective study examined the association of depression and anxiety symptoms measured before and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic with the incidence of persistent symptoms. Among 25,114 participants [mean (SD) age, 48.72 years (12.82); 51.1% women] from the SAPRIS and SAPRIS-Sérologie surveys nested in the French CONSTANCES population-based cohort, depression and anxiety symptoms were measured with the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale and the 12-item General Health Questionnaire before the pandemic, and with the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire and the 7-Item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale at the beginning of the pandemic (i.e., between April 6, 2020 and May 4, 2020). Incident persistent symptoms were self-reported between December 2020 and January 2021. The following variables were also considered: gender, age, educational level, household income, smoking status, BMI, hypertension, diabetes, self-rated health, and SARS-CoV-2 infection according to serology/PCR test results. After a follow-up of seven to ten months, 2329 participants (9.3%) had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and 4262 (17.0%) reported at least one incident persistent symptom that emerged from March 2020, regardless of SARS-CoV-2 infection. In multi-adjusted logistic regression models, participants in the highest (versus the lowest) quartile of depressive or anxiety symptom levels before or at the beginning of the pandemic were more likely to have at least one incident persistent symptom (versus none) at follow-up [OR (95%CI) ranging from 2.10 (1.89-2.32) to 3.01 (2.68-3.37)], with dose-response relationships (p for linear trend <0.001). Overall, these associations were significantly stronger in non-infected versus infected participants, except for depressive symptoms at the beginning of the pandemic. Depressive symptoms at the beginning of the pandemic were the strongest predictor of incident persistent symptoms in both infected and non-infected participants [OR (95%CI): 2.88 (2.01-4.14) and 3.03 (2.69-3.42), respectively]. In exploratory analyses, similar associations were found for each symptom taken separately in different models. Depression and anxiety symptoms should be tested as a potential target for preventive interventions against persistent symptoms after an infection with SARS-CoV-2.

Lung cancer risk discrimination of prediagnostic proteomics measurements compared with existing prediction tools.

BACKGROUND: We sought to develop a proteomics-based risk model for lung cancer and evaluate its risk-discriminatory performance in comparison with a smoking-based risk model (PLCOm2012) and a commercially available autoantibody biomarker test. METHODS: We designed a case-control study nested in 6 prospective cohorts, including 624 lung cancer participants who donated blood samples at most 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis and 624 smoking-matched cancer free participants who were assayed for 302 proteins. We used 470 case-control pairs from 4 cohorts to select proteins and train a protein-based risk model. We subsequently used 154 case-control pairs from 2 cohorts to compare the risk-discriminatory performance of the protein-based model with that of the Early Cancer Detection Test (EarlyCDT)-Lung and the PLCOm2012 model using receiver operating characteristics analysis and by estimating models' sensitivity. All tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: The area under the curve for the protein-based risk model in the validation sample was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.81) compared with 0.64 (95% CI = 0.57 to 0.70) for the PLCOm2012 model (Pdifference = .001). The EarlyCDT-Lung had a sensitivity of 14% (95% CI = 8.2% to 19%) and a specificity of 86% (95% CI = 81% to 92%) for incident lung cancer. At the same specificity of 86%, the sensitivity for the protein-based risk model was estimated at 49% (95% CI = 41% to 57%) and 30% (95% CI = 23% to 37%) for the PLCOm2012 model. CONCLUSION: Circulating proteins showed promise in predicting incident lung cancer and outperformed a standard risk prediction model and the commercialized EarlyCDT-Lung.